In the final episode of season three of the series Fargo, the antagonist Mr. Varga sits opposite his former adversary from law enforcement who he last encountered ten years previously while he was running a money laundering operation in Minnesota. Feigning ignorance of all the accusations hurled at him, he says to his interrogator, “Are you familiar with the Russian saying ‘The past is unpredictable?’” She accuses him of making the proverb up, and carries on with a barrage of threats and descriptions of the various fates that await him, to which he replies, “The future is certain,” then carries on to describe a not unpleasant outcome which then unfolds.
History is unpredictable, the future, certain.
America is great. What makes it great is that it provides an environment where individuals can pursue their legitimate interests. So long as they maintain this, they will remain at the top of the pecking order. Lose it and they will fall. They are now unique in this approach, with the EU, China, and Russia all using different methods with the same intent: seeking to secure the status quo for the comfort of the elites and survival of the masses. A post-Brexit UK stands at a crossroads. Should it seek to unleash the individual, then Brexit will be a great triumph.
Professor Sarah Gilbert of Oxford, developer of the Astrazeneca vaccine for COVID-19, observed that discovery often comes at the intersection of disciplines. I would add that any meaningful discovery has always occurred at the intersection of disciplines, since disciplines, like countries, have had their borders formed by many forces, the strongest of which have been arbitrary. Linus Charles Pauling, two time nobel laureate who many consider to be the GOAT of science, held 40 doctorates at the time of his death at age ninety-three. Most famous for his work on chemical bonds, paving the way for the recognition of DNA, he developed an interest in health later in life after developing an illness. He pioneered the use of vitamin and mineral supplementation to achieve and sustain optimal health. For his troubles, he has been effectively written out of history (which as you now understand is unpredictable). Even the institute that bears his name bears little resemblance to the man. He had a broad range of competences and was a living, walking intersection of disciplines.
Not many of us can arrive at the level of Linus Charles Pauling, but we can seek to develop the habit of clear thinking and in doing so understand who to listen to.
Pauling, by the way, predicted the development of gene editing in the early ‘80s and cautioned scientists about this. It is here and now that we have thrown caution to the wind. How the little knowledge we have acquired recently has made us superior to millions of years of evolution is unclear, but we are ploughing ahead. Dr. Rhonda Patrick is the only person I know of (I am sure there are others) who is researching the effects of vitamins, minerals, and other natural substances on gene activation and deactivation; a thoroughly sensible idea.
If you can, choose where you live and pursue opportunity. If you can, put yourself in an environment that suits your abilities. It is easier now with so much able to be done remotely. I have lived in many places. Now, I live in a british colony in the tropics. It has many peculiarities and being domiciled here is more by chance than by design. I have however come to appreciate the benefits of colonial life. Though nominally self governing, the Motherland imposes restrictions that would be unacceptable at home. One result of this is an enormous sovereign fund, access to which is tightly controlled. Local politicians can frequently be heard to lament such an injustice when their constituents are subject to such poverty and suffering. Having been surrounded by genuine poverty for most of my life I see none here, not amongst documented inhabitants, anyway. Bizarrely, the colonial master has spent thirteen years and over twice the amount of money devoted to the Chillcott inquiry in pursuit of a politician who is accused of profiting from the sale of Crown land. Such theft by politicians is commonplace in the motherland, and often “punished” by an elevation to the Lords. That the local politician was able to do this was the result of a failed experiment in “devolution,” the granting of greater powers of governing to the natives. This lesson has been internalised, as they are now discovering in the north of the UK. The ability to access and misappropriate public money must be tightly controlled. It is, after all, hard to come by.
Fortune wears many guises, the most common being misfortune. My little island paradise, in addition to a chief minister and a parliament, also enjoys a Governor, complete with mansion. Appointed by the motherland, this person has typically been a member of the Foreign Service on a pre-retirement program. I have met several and gotten to know one well in a completely different context. For the most part, these were spent men whose spark, if they ever had a spark, has long since been extinguished by the years and diseases of decline. Then the frank assessments delivered by secure email from Washington to the Foreign Office somehow made their way to the front page of a major newspaper creating a great deal of unhappiness. Careers were ended, some high profile. Less visible was the trail behind the top where as the leader fell on his sword, his minions had to submit to the axe.
Headed into early retirement, fate happily intervened and as one ancient succumbed to yet another ailment, some bright spark, or more likely the network, looking out for our man and knowing of his tropical connections offered him the job of representing the Crown in paradise, which thankfully he accepted. The first Governor in over a decade able to walk unaided brought to the job energy and military experience. It cannot be a comfortable existence for politicians accustomed to having to scream into the good ear of a head of thinning to no hair and dull, vacant eyes, but this is a small price.
The colony on which I live, a sparsely populated barren island paradise, was one of the first places to receive the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine. I kissed a picture of the queen, chest puffed up with pride at being British. The motherland in all its misery had time to think of us native peoples on a faraway island. I enquired in passing of someone with knowledge of the affair, “How come we had been so fortunate?” He replied, “Our bid was very aggressive.”
The takeaway is: a competent governor and deep war chest can do wonders.
I took the time and space to tell this story for two reasons: to help you recognise the absurdities which routinely govern our lives and to show you the benefits of living in a proper jurisdiction. If you are in the UK, one such area is the North East, specifically Middlesborough. Led by Mayor Andy Preston, an Independent, the city is transforming and looking to become a high-tech hub. I think this will happen. Find out the skill gap there, and if you do not have the skills, pick one you think you can do and acquire it.
Unfortunately, Middlesborough is not as far removed from incompetence as my Island Paradise, so they are still subject to abuse. Having implemented and executed a world-beating vaccine roll out, leading the UK in percentage vaccinated, they have had their vaccine supply cut in half. The balance has been diverted to the south, including London, where rates of vaccination are tens of percentage points lower. Sadly, drawing on my experience, I do not believe that the problem in the South is availability of vaccines. It is far more likely a logistics problem. I worked in logistics for many years. Few things are as difficult. You require people present in the moment with mind and body engaged as one. Such people are hard to find. One switched off person can wreak unspeakable chaos. There’s probably a lot of this in the south.
The future is certain. For those of you who have been following this blog you will note that the pandemic has been playing out pretty much as I expected. This is not brilliance nor foresight, just clear thinking and a bit of reading.
We are in a second wave. There is a third to come, probably not until the fall. Hopefully that will be the last big event. The rapid development of vaccines have only been outdone by rapid mutations of the virus. Mutations more infectious, more deadly, and more resistant to the vaccine are making their way around the world.
Lockdowns will be with us well into next year; targeted, localised, and enforced.
I do not see how there will be any Olympic Games before 2024.
Work from home will be the norm.
Governments are going to go after money. They will pursue the wealthy who will melt away with their riches, leaving you to face the music.
Every kind of sickness will increase.
Every nation, at least in the western world, will experience instability. Governments will fall, businesses will fail, and people will die at their own hand.
There will be other, deadlier pandemics.
There are many other certainties which we need not go into, this is what you need to do.
Protect your health. Vitamin and mineral supplementation. See how here and here.
Work on your personal situation, see here. If you are in the UK, USA, Canada or Jamaica consider joining a branch of the armed forces, full or part time. They will pay you to learn new skills, I do not know of a better deal.
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 infected a third of the world’s population and killed 50 million people worldwide, including 675,000 Americans. This on a planet of 1.5 billion including 100 million Americans. For COVID-19 to be comparable, 300 million people worldwide would die, including two million Americans. Every death is a personal tragedy, but the reality is, that despite the ineptness of the response and the underlying poor health of people especially in the UK and the USA, this is not a bad outcome as pandemics go. One pandemic in prehistory reduced mankind to 10,000 individuals. We came back from that, we will come back from this, provided enough of us are able to discover ourselves.
Seek to live a full life, and hope to die well.
Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, their ability to change the world is at near zero. I am assuming that you have comparatively fewer resources and Twitter followers, and so your ability to change the world is even less. So, forget about the world and seek to change yourself, then your immediate circumstances, then impact those you love. You may end up changing the world, but likely won’t be around to notice.
I will leave you with this, and this is especially for the young among you, the prayer of the 13th warrior.
“Merciful Father, I have squandered my days with plans of many things
This was not among them.
But in this moment, I beg only to live the next minutes well.
For all we ought to have thought and have not thought
All we ought to have said, and have not said,
For all we ought to have done, and have not done.
I pray thee god, for forgiveness.”
(Used without permission, which was not sought)
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