In the spring of this year I thought that the COVID-19 pandemic would enter a waning phase in the first world, UK, USA, EU and Canada. This is turning out not to be true. Vaccines were never the way out of this pandemic, as I have pointed out before, the logistics of making and distributing vaccines to the world are impossible. There is no disease that has been successfully vaccinated against that was not first endemic in the human population, as we have seen the coronavirus has been fighting through mutations to ultimately find a state in which it can exist in moderately healthy people, this has led to variants which have at once become more
transmissible and more resistant to existing vaccines.
As I write the latest identified variant, Omicron, is causing panic around the world, but especially in the advanced countries travel bans imposed and border closings implemented. Of course these measures will be in vain, Omicron will spread and other variants will emerge.
The resistance to vaccines in the developed world has surprised me. I did not expect this level of hesitancy from a population quite prepared to pop any pill they see advertised and can pressure their doctor into prescribing. If you are prepared to use prescription drugs, (the majority of which come with warnings pages long), why you would not take a vaccine? Baffling. The level of resistance has meant that in the USA, UK, and parts of the EU, rates of uptake are not sufficient to slow the spread of COVID to levels the health services can manage.
Even more confusing is the failure of medical authorities from the WHO, and developed nations to approve and encourage the use of Ivermectin in the treatment of COVID. It has been apparent from studies and most strikingly from the Japanese experience, detailed here, that Ivermectin is a highly effective treatment. Authorities remain silent.
Some of the details I got wrong, but on the big things I have been proven right. The thing I want you to understand is that this is not magic, or intellect, it is a methodology of thinking that allows a better understanding of the problems and solutions than the scenes painted in social media.
The step, after understanding (one in which I have not particularly excelled), is to use this understanding to position yourself to benefit from the mistakes you can identify and the likely consequences you can guess. Campaign if you want, against the way politicians and other elites are leading us, but from experience this will come to nothing, even as you rail against the machine, protect your health, your assets, and seek the opportunities.
Here are four steps to help you work out what is going on. Not everything has the significance of a Global Pandemic or Climate Change, the truth is that most of the issues you will need to understand and which will make a difference in the lives of your loved ones and yourself are very localised to your country, county, community and household.
Firstly, set aside time, each day for a minimum of five days a week to think about the challenges and opportunities in front of you. Some of this time you should spend listening or reading sources you have come to trust or searching online to educate yourself on certain issues. Be sure to identify the issue beforehand and stick to it during the allotted time. Do not go down any rabbit hole. It is not necessary for you to solve any problems or spot any opportunities during these sessions, but only to gain a better understanding and alternative perspectives. Your brain will do the rest while you are otherwise engaged. You will be shocked at what comes to you in the night.
Secondly, KISS, Keep It Simple Stupid. Most complexity is artificial, it is a construct designed to exclude those whose faculties may work differently. Almost anything you come upon can be reduced to a form you can manage notwithstanding all but the most severe impairments. Once upon a time the best were thought to be the ones who could remove the complexity from situations and so reduce them to the simplest level possible. The rise of expertise, which is not to be confused with the rise of science, has seen things covered in mystery, and the breadth of knowledge subordinated to ever increasing depth of knowledge on a narrow dimension.
Thirdly, structure structure structure. I have dealt before in this blog on the techniques for structuring. Not all of them need to go to all problems and with practice the more useful methods can be done as a mental exercise. Structuring will allow you to discover your biases and ultimately decide which if any are worth keeping.
Fourth and final step. Give yourself a reality check. Does this make sense given my experience of life. As you continue to live your life in a thoughtful way, your sense of reality will increase. If you cannot feel it, likely you have missed something. Better to start again and see where it takes you. To be clear you do not have to feel 'good' about the outcome, it does not have to make you feel better, it only has to make sense, that is what you are checking, does this make sense.
By way of example let me briefly point out my own understanding of the climate change issue. I use this because everyone reading this blog should be familiar with the background. For brevity I am also going to jump to a few conclusions, that have for me passed the reality check and how they influence my actions.
Climate change is real, man made factors have contributed to increasing average temperatures. This increase will be very difficult to stop and impossible to reverse. The solutions to the climate problem championed by those in charge all sound a little 'cliche' net zero by 2050, decarbonise transport, heating, electricity generation. These issues seem to me to have been chosen because of the ease with which they generate an emotional reaction, particularly amoung the young. India cannot move away from coal, but their cows I understand are less gassy than those elsewhere because their diet is superior. America has gassy cows and lingering coal. The UK has substantial 'renewables' in the grid, but the wind and especially the sun continue to be unreliable. Nuclear remains a bad word and Putin is maximising the gain and pain he can get from gas. Choose where you live and the construction of your dwelling to avoid/resist adverse weather events.
The electrification of transportation as a practical matter is not possible. Even if the technological challenges of electric motors and batteries are overcome, the materials needed in the manufacture of batteries are not to be found in sufficient quantities to electrify transport. Large portions of advanced nations may be successful, but the bulk of the poor world have no chance.
The internal combustion engine is far from dead. Next vehicle you buy, go for a hybrid. Toyota is the world leader in this technology with a great range of vehicles I hope they keep innovating and manufacturing.
Opportunities are being created by the drive to decarbonise electricity. Nevermind the outcome of these efforts, if you acquire skills in wind or solar (maybe wave) energy production, building insulation, heat pump installation, there may be a very lucrative period ahead.
Personal and property safety first, mind how you move around and how far you need to go, put yourself in the growth space.
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