AFGHANISTAN: As this fiasco continues to unfold I can see no new lessons to be learnt, except that we have two to two and a half decades to the next disaster. Nations cannot be built, but we knew that, no need to spend tho
usands of lives and trillions of dollars to reaffirm, when an army is routed (decisively defeated) the end comes fast, we saw that in Vietnam 1975. Most shocking is the sheer incompetence of the United States of America, from politicians through diplomats to the intelligence community and alarmingly, the military. Every civilisation, every empire has a moment which historians subsequently mark as the beginning of the end. We may be witnessing it. A member of the Parliament of the United Kingdom Tom Turgendhat did make an observation with which I completely agree, you have to earn the right to criticise those who go into battle on behalf of the nation, the price is your own blood. He also called for an alternative arrangement to counter the reality of waning American power. I think this is necessary, let us see if the elites of the Liberal Democracies have the ‘cojones’.
SEX DRUGS AND ROCK AND ROLL (Tokoyo 2020 Olympic Summer Games) Still the greatest show on earth it is too early to tell what the fallout may be. The determination to stage the Games, come what may, shows how much of a commercial enterprise this is. Most athletes do not stand on a podium and most retire with considerable debt, (I am now speaking from experience); time to pay the labour.
LEAK OR WET MARKET, THAT IS THE QUESTION (Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games) Where did the COVID-19 virus come from (or from whence cometh the fifth horseman of the Apocalypse?). As with many things we will probably never know for sure.On the other hand there is the puss (Jamaican for cat) which has just stolen the fish. You did not see it, but there is that look on his face. The present American Administration is in crisis having fubared the Afghanistan exit ( here I am deliberately leaving out the word ‘strategy’ which implies a certain amount of thought, which clearly did not happen), will, according to the Playbook (a copy of which I have illicitly obtained through observing the world in action) round on a situation sufficiently large to eclipse the debacle of the Durrani Empire (land of the Afghans). I anticipate a titanic battle, the obvious line of attack from the west is the upcoming Olympic Winter Games in Beijing. The International Olympic Committee, mindful of the costs, to the host city, the sponsors, but most importantly to themselves, will be the first and most ferocious line of defence. How successful they are will say a lot about the world in which we now live.
ON AND ON! Zero COVID, vaccines and lockdowns. By my own calculations this is now the longest running pandemic of modern times, and the end, I fear, is not in sight. The virus evades border controls and vaccines. Lockdowns impose a terrible cost, especially on the disadvantaged. The ‘nudge’ society has left a huge number of people sceptical about what they are being told, unable to distinguish between the ‘nudge’ and ‘sludge’. Simply, we are not going to vaccinate our way out of this, even if there was not a single anti-vaxxer on the planet, the logistics of this are not possible. We are not going to avoid this either by border closings or lockdowns, the virus is in the human population and will become endemic.
The price for this is in blood, we will come to an accommodation with the virus. What will we learn? Obesity is the outward manifestation of an inner turmoil, elevated blood sugar levels, which is a factor in all the degenerative conditions that make us ill. We are too sick in western liberal democracies, we have to choose to be healthier.
WHY DOES THIS MATTER? Some Jews saw Hitler coming and fled, others did not and died. What was the difference? There was some chance, but most importantly, those who understood human nature, had an appreciation of history and were practiced in ‘clear thinking’ fled, if they could, but at least they made a choice, many stayed, convinced they would perish but circumstances left them no option. Many more harboured a ‘beggars belief’, that it would all work out. Some Afghans saw what was coming and made their arrangements, many more were left behind as the last flights left. What I would like for you is to acquire the skills to properly see the world and the habits to survive it, at least for a time.
Fernando Pessoa was the greatest writer in the Portugese language (he also published in English and French). He wrote under at least 75 names (including three female names) that he called heteronyms, because each character held views independent of him. He wrote on a wide variety of topics from travel to philosophy, and was an accomplished poet. Alberto Caeiro was known as “master of the heteronyms''. While he was not the first, what distinguishes him to me is his commitment to reality. That brings me to the title of this blog, which I hope to return to from time to time to delve into the reality of things.
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